A four factor prediction
Winning a basketball game, college or pro, usually comes down to winning the four factors: effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding percentage and free-throw rate.
Those four areas are the backbone to determining a team's efficiency and the underlying quality of a team's offense and defense. In other words, it's helpful when you're wondering just how good a team really is. As an added bonus, the four factors help a person see how well a team plays without the ball.
The factors aren't weighted equally, though. According to Dean Oliver, shooting is by far the most important factor, followed by turnovers, rebounding and free throws.
Got all that? Good.
Because you'll want to read this post from The Audacity of Hoops, which does a predictive four factors for the Final Four. In other words, it's a tempo-free prediction of Saturday's games.
The prediction? Butler beats Michigan State because the Spartans commit too many turnovers, while Duke beats West Virginia because the Mountaineers can't shoot.
(c) 2010 msnbc.com
Elite Eight Predictions - Can the 'Butler' Bulldogs Do 'It' To No. 2 Kansas State Wildcats?The fifth-seeded Butler Bulldogs have put a whole new meaning to the age-old phrase ‘The Butler did it' during the course of winning three consecutive NCAA Tournament games so far, including their shocking 63-59 upset win over No. 1 Syracuse on Thursday.
Saturday, March 27, 4:30 PM ET
NCAAB Betting Odds: Kansas State -4
(O/U) 135
TV: CBS
Butler Bulldogs (31-4 SU, 15-20 ATS, 15-18 O/U)
Kansas State Wildcats (29-7 SU, 20-9-2 ATS, 16-13-1 O/U)
Tonight, the second-seeded Kansas State Wildcats will have to play their best basketball in order to avoid being upset by the underrated, Bulldogs, when the two ballclubs take to the court at EnergySolutions Arena at 4:30 PM ET.
Butler 411
Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Bulldogs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games as an underdog.
Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
Bulldogs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.
Butler jumped all over Syracuse in building a 10 point halftime lead before holding off the Orange to record a thrilling 63-59 upset win on Thursday to advance to the Elite Eight.
The Bulldogs got a team-high 17 points from Gordon Hayward while Shelvin Mack added14 points in the shocker to cover the NCAA basketball betting odds as 6.5-point underdogs and improve to 3-1 ATS over the last four games.
Kansas State 411
Wildcats are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Kansas State may have recorded the most exciting win of the tournament by beating Xavier 101-96 on Thursday in a double overtime thriller to reach the Elite Eight.
Kansas State narrowly covered the college basketball betting line as a 4.5-point favorite to move to 3-0 ATS over the last three games.
Junior combo guard Jacob Pullen scored a team-high 28 points while lightning-quick point guard Denis Clemente added 25 points in the victory.
Analysis: Thanks a lot Butler for making this pick a lot tougher than it should be.
Butler's surprising win over Syracuse on Thursday undoubtedly will give the streaking Bulldogs a ton of confidence heading into this contest against the Wildcats.
As tough as it is for me to go against a Butler Bulldogs team that I said had no chance of beating the Orange, that's exactly what I'm going to do, simply because I believe the Kansas State Wildcats have been on a serious mission to reach the Final Four ever since getting knocked out of their Big 12 Tournament.
While Butler has recorded an impressive 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning SU record, the Bulldogs have also gone a disappointing 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and a bankroll-breaking 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.
I really love the way K-State head coach Frank Martin leads his players with his ‘in-your-face, tell-it-like-it-is style' and I think the Wildcats' double overtime win over Xavier on Thursday night will fortify the team's mental fortitude moving forward.
The Wildcats have also been on fire when it comes to covering their college basketball betting odds, having gone, 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games and an equally impressive 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as a favorite and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
Play the Wildcats to keep their dream season alive by beating the Cinderella Butler Bulldogs while covering the Elite Eight Betting Odds with just a bit of room to spare.
NCAAB Expert Picks: Kansas State -4 Points
1994-2009 BetUS.com
College Basketball Picks & Predictions for Sunday, March 21, 2010Gonzaga vs. Syracuse, 12:10PM ET
Gonzaga is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games
Syracuse is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
Gonzaga is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games
Syracuse is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Syracuse is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
College Basketball Free Pick: Gonzaga - Best Line: +7
Xavier vs. Pittsburgh, 4:50PM ET
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PITTSBURGH is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
XAVIER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
XAVIER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
XAVIER is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
XAVIER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
XAVIER is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
XAVIER is 79-50 ATS (+24.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
XAVIER is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against XAVIER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
College Basketball Free Pick: Xavier - Best Line: PK
Texas A&M vs. Purdue, 5PM ET
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
TEXAS A&M is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
TEXAS A&M is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
TEXAS A&M is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
PURDUE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons.
PURDUE is 52-79 ATS (-34.9 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
College Basketball Free Pick: Texas A&M - Best Line: -2
(c)1999-2009 TheSpread.com Inc
Marquette vs Villanova College Basketball Predictions, Odds & PicksThe World's Most Famous Arena, Madison Square Garden in New York, NY, will be the sight for today's Big East quarterfinals matchup between the Marquette Golden Eagles [+5 1/2] taking on the 10th ranked Villanova Wildcats [-5 1/2]. These rivals are set to tip things off at 2:30 PM ET (1:30 PM CT) and the OVER/UNDER between Marquette and the Wildcats is set at a combined total of 142 1/2 points.
For Marquette, this team has proven that it can pick up its level of play against more talented opponents and vice versa. The Golden Eagles are coming off a 2-point victory over St. John's in the tourney's second round after blowing a 14-point second half lead. Lazar Hayward led the way with 20 points and 9 rebounds for Marquette, who has now won 10 of its last 12 when facing conference rivals.
"Everything has changed," Golden Eagles head coach Buzz Williams said. "The whole deal is this, our margin of error has never changed. The games that we lost, the lessons we learned, are just as important as the games we won by one or two possessions as well."
For the sports betting odds favorite Wildcats, this team enters the Big East tournament after a 13-5 season for the second consecutive year. Much like last year, Villanova's postseason run began with a highly contested win over Marquette, but under different circumstances.
Villanova had won 11 of 13 to finish last year's season. This time around, Jay Wright's team finished just 4-5 down the stretch but gained a little momentum with a with a 68-66 win over 10th ranked West Virginia.
"We are getting better even though it doesn't show sometimes in wins and losses," Wright said. "We're getting better defensively, we're getting a little bit better rebounding-wise. And we just played better teams at the end of the schedule."
Copyright 1997-2009 Sports Odds
Hot shooting lifts Bruins to win over Louisiana CollegeIt just happened to be another game for Ari Mohsenian.
Leading up to Friday's first-round NCAA Division III national tournament game against Louisiana College, the George Fox sophomore shooting guard didn't do anything outside of her normal practice routine. No extra shots. No specific form work. She really didn't change anything that she had done all season leading up to the game.
That seemed to work as she scored a game-high 20 points, most coming from her 6-7 performance on three-point shooting, to lift the Bruins to a 65-49 win against the Wildcats.
"My teammates just did a really good job of finding me when I was open and then the passes were just really great and on time," said Mohsenian, who averages 6.1 points per game. "I guess I've just got to credit that to them and getting me the ball."
Friday's performance was the third time this season Mohsenian has led the team in scoring. She scored 16 points in a 60-51 win at Puget Sound Jan. 29 and followed it up with 22 points - thanks to going 6-6 on three-pointers - in a 98-57 win against Lewis & Clark in the Northwest Conference tournament semifinals Feb. 25.
"That's her job," said GFU coach Scott Rueck of Mohsenian's shooting. "She's been doing a great job of that."
George Fox, the No. 5-ranked team in the country, held a 30-19 halftime lead, giving the No. 14-ranked Wildcats, a team from Pineville, La., the hope of an upset.
Wildcats coach Janice Joseph-Richard said she wasn't "terribly worried" being down 11 points and knowing her team has a propensity for second-half comebacks. Her prediction for a second-half comeback came true when the Wildcats (24-3) got within seven points in the first two minutes.
"Then they just started shooting the ball like crazy," she said of the Bruins (26-2).
George Fox went on a 10-0 run that started with a layup by senior forward Elise Kuenzi with 18:33 to play. Freshman Hannah Munger converted a three-point play and then followed it up with another basket and potential three-point play after she was fouled. Munger missed the foul shot, but GFU senior guard Lindsay Keener grabbed the rebound and then hit a three-pointer from the corner to boost George Fox's lead to 17 points - all in a span of 59 seconds.
The run seemed to deflate the hopes of a comeback by the Wildcats as George Fox eventually grew its lead to 63-32 with 6:41 to play on a three-pointer by reserve guard Carly Towne. George Fox played its reserves the rest of the way as the Wildcats closed out the game with a 17-2 run.
George Fox coach Scott Rueck said he was worried about Lousiana College's willingness to change its defensive strategy at any point in the game, which is something teams from the Northwest Conference generally don't do. Rueck also said the Bruins had to force turnovers. The Wildcats committed 15 turnovers - an above-average number for the team.
"This team is methodical and they know what they want and they look for it and they usually will get a shot every possession or they'll get to the line, so I'm very happy with this win, especially with the way we relaxed in the second half and just played basketball," he said.
The Wildcats played without junior guard Christy Pantallion, who was suspended from the team earlier in the day for a violation of team rules. Pantallion averaged 14.6 points per game and scored 22 points in Louisiana College's American Southwest Conference's tournament title game - a 73-69 win against McMurry.
Rueck knew something was awry when Louisiana College's starting lineup had changed. He peered down the court to the Louisiana College bench and didn't see her.
"That's too bad and too bad for her," Rueck said. "She's a heck of a player. She's the reason their here with the way she played in that last game and not only that, but throughout the year. So it's too bad she wasn't able to play."
Along with Mohsenian's 20 points, Kuenzi added 12 points and four assists. Munger finished with 11 points and 11 rebounds.
The Bruins will move on to the second round of the tournament and face Puget Sound - a team they've defeated seven straight times - at 7 p.m. tonight at home. The matchups are generally fierce and low-scoring, but George Fox scored a 77-51 win against the Loggers in the NWC tournament title game Feb. 27.
"There's nothing new," Mohsenian said of the George Fox rival. "They know us, we know them and it's just going to be a battle. And it's exciting. There's definitely that rivalry there and they have some really good players on their team, so I think we're all really excited to play them again. There's probably going be some new things that they throw at us - some new plays and stuff - so I'm kind of excited to see what they throw at us."
(c)Copyright 2001 - 2010 Eagle Newspapers Inc
Syracuse Orange deserve to be ranked No. 1 in college basketballSyracuse University deserves to be ranked No. 1 in the nation for the first time in 20 years when the two college basketball weekly polls are released today.
Last Monday's top three teams all suffered big losses last week:
No. 1 Kansas lost 85-77 to Oklahoma State and is 27-2.
No. 2 Kentucky lost 74-65 to Tennessee and is 27-2.
No. 3 Purdue lost star Robbie Hummel to a season-ending knee injury and is 24-4 after a 53-44 home loss Sunday to Michigan State.
Kansas also lost 76-68 at Tennessee Jan. 10 and has two overtime wins.
Kentucky also lost 68-62 at South Carolina Jan. 26.
Purdue lost three games in a row in January: 73-66 at Wisconsin, 70-66 at home to Ohio State and 72-64 at Northwestern. I don't understand why Purdue was ranked above Syracuse even before Hummel's injury and Sunday's loss to Michigan State.
Syracuse is 27-2 after an impressive 95-77 home romp over No. 7 Villanova before the largest on-campus crowd in college basketball history. A national prime-time TV audience Saturday night witnessed two of the proudest hours in the history of SU basketball. The all-around performance might have clinched national Coach of the Year honors for the first time for Jim Boeheim. It would not be a lifetime achievement award.
Talk Syracuse hoops with Jeff DiVeronica at noon today
Surprisingly, only two Big East coaches have earned AP Coach of the Year honors: Jim Calhoun (Connecticut) in 1990 and Ben Howland (Pittsburgh) in 2002. Boeheim has been Big East Coach of the Year three times (1984, 1991, 2000).
The main reason SU should be No. 1 this afternoon: the Orange have proved they are the best team in by far the best conference in college basketball and a huge live crowd and TV audience watched a spectacular performance Saturday night. SU deserves to be ranked on top by a landslide.
-- Grading the Winter Olympics:
Canada as host of 2010 Winter Olympics — A. After a tragic start — Georgian luge racer Nodar Kumaritashvili died in a training accident just hours before the Opening Ceremonies — a disappointing first few days on the medals chart and poor weather, Canada rallied impressively. The TV ratings were excellent and there have been no positive drug tests (at least not yet). Canada's women celebrating their hockey gold medal with champagne and beer in an empty arena blew over quickly and the IOC came off looking petty for making a big deal out of it.
Medal grades:
USA — A. Beyond expectations and the most optimistic projections. Led with 37 medals (9 gold, 15 silver and 13 bronze). A win in men's hockey would've made the overall grade A+.
Canada — A-. The goal was to lead in total medals and win men's hockey. After a slow start, Canada won the third-most medals (26) and the most gold medals (a record 14), capping an impressive closing kick with gold in men's hockey — the one most Canadians wanted most.
Russia — D. A very disappointing performance. Russia expected to win around 30 medals. It won only 15 (including 3 gold) and was sixth in the medal standings. It will be interesting to see how much money is found to beef up Russia's team for 2014, when it will host the Winter Olympics in Sochi and the mountains of Krasnaya Polyana.
-- The Buffalo Bills have cut the cord with wide receiver Terrell Owens. Many of you think T.O. was a bust with the Bills. I disagree. His signing caused some excitement for a change. He dropped a few balls and ran a few wrong routes, but he also led the team in catches (55) and yards receiving (829), with a decent 15.1 yards per catch. He had six carries for 54 yards and scored six TDs (one rushing and five receiving).
T.O. was open many times but didn't see the football and didn't have decent NFL QBs throwing to him. He didn't do anything to embarrass the organization and was for the most part a good teammate.
I'd have made an effort to keep Owens. Lee Evans and the 36-year-old Owens still could be an above average 1-2 punch at wide receiver if they had a better QB. Unloading T.O. makes it more likely the Bills will miss the playoffs for an 11th straight season.
-- The NFL has finally seen the light and there is a very good chance that there will be a new overtime format for the postseason only by the end of this month. Each team would get at least one possession in OT unless the team winning the coin flip scored a touchdown — not a field goal — on first possession. A rule change requires two-thirds approval, and I don't know why any team would reject the new proposal at league meetings March 21-24 in Orlando. I assume Buffalo and Detroit would be allowed to vote, even though they never make the playoffs. ... Thomas Jones (New York Jets) is expected to be the next released veteran running back. He still can play but isn't worth $6 million per season. ... Cleveland president Mike Holmgren doesn't want a QB controversy and Brady Quinn figures to be retained, with Derek Anderson likely to be released soon. He's due a $2 million roster bonus this month. I don't think he's better than Ryan Fitzpatrick or Trent Edwards. ... Soon-to-be free-agent defensive end Julius Peppers reportedly is interested in the Philadelphia Eagles and they are interested in him. ... Arizona is listening to trade offers for Anquan Boldin and Miami is the AFC East team most likely to get him. The Dolphins also consider Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant a possible No. 12 overall pick.
-- Rochester Raiders (Indoor Football League) owner Dave McCarthy salutes kicker Adam Lancott as the unsung hero of Saturday night's season-opening 49-47 upset victory over the host Chicago Slaughter: "He was 4-for-4 on field goals, including the game-winner with 4 seconds to play. The goalposts are only 9 feet apart and he drilled it right down the middle." The Slaughter had won 14 straight games and are the defending CIFL champions. ... The Rochester Knighthawks had by far the worst crowd Saturday night in the National Lacrosse League: Denver 15,427; Buffalo 15,336; Toronto 10,984; Boston 8,354; Rochester 5,229. ... NLL home teams were 1-4 Saturday after entering the weekend 27-13.
-- Don Cherry's prediction on Sunday's men's hockey gold medal game was Canada 5, USA 3. He thought Ryan Miller "would have to be sensational (in goal for the USA) because he is going to see more rubber than a dead skunk along the New York Thruway." ... The NHL trade deadline is 3 p.m. Wednesday. The Buffalo Sabres reportedly are looking for a defenseman to help on the power play. The Florida Panthers are expected to be active, with players being moved for draft picks. In the short-term, that wouldn't help the Rochester Amerks.
-- Randy Ruiz, the International League's 2008 Rookie of the Year at age 30 as a Rochester Red Wing, has a decent chance to break spring training in the major leagues for the first time in his career. The Toronto Blue Jays have assigned the DH-first baseman No. 21 and he feels honored to be wearing Roberto Clemente's number. Ruiz hit .313 with 10 HRs in only 33 games with Toronto late last season after earning Pacific Coast League MVP honors with Las Vegas.
democratandchronicle.com
Michigan State vs Penn State - College Basketball Picks, Odds & PredictionsMichigan State vs Penn State - College Basketball Picks, Odds & Predictions: After having their 10-game win streak snapped, the 10th ranked (19-6, 9-3) Michigan State Spartans [-7] have struggled significantly. Looking to stop a 3-game losing streak, the Spartans pay a visit to the sports betting odds underdog (8-15, 0-11) Penn State Nittany Lions [+7]. This Big Ten battle is scheduled to tipoff at noon and the OVER/UNDER is set at a combined total of 132 1/2 points scored.
For Michigan State, this team began last week in full control of the conference. Nevertheless, the Spartans are now trying to avoid their first four-game skid in three years. Thus, MSU has now fallen into a three-way tie for first place in the Big Ten with Illinois and Ohio State.
"The major surprise to me is a lack of effort right now," head coach Tom Izzo said. "When we're jogging back on defense and they're going in for layups and dunks, that is effort-related and that's unacceptable."
For Penn State, this team has yet to win a single Big Ten conference game this season. Nevertheless, the Spartans are well aware of how dangerous the Lions can be, especially after being upset at East Lansing 72-68 last season. Penn State has lost five straight games against ranked opponents.
"Being 0-11 right now, that's like the worst feeling ever," Taylor Battle said. "But it gives you the stride to want to win. We are trying and trying. Sometimes I think we get uptight a little bit, but tonight we hit our shots. And then they just came back and made a spectacular shot."
Copyright 1997-2009 Sports Odds
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